Sharia Capital Market Dynamics: Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables and DJIM on JII

Rahmat Fitriansyah, Mohammad Soleh Nurzaman

Abstract


The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) has exhibited substantial volatility and a sustained decline over the past decade, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and global Islamic stock market performance. This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables and the Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM) indices on the JII, employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methodologies to analyze both short- and long-term dynamics. Key macroeconomic variables considered include Indonesia's banking interest rate (BI Rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (ER), and world oil prices (CO), alongside DJIM indices from the United States, Europe, and Japan. Short-term results reveal a significant negative impact of the BI Rate and DJIM Europe on the JII, while the CPI and DJIM Japan exert a positive influence. Conversely, long-term analysis indicates a negative influence from the exchange rate, oil prices, and DJIM Japan, with a positive contribution from the U.S. DJIM. Notably, DJIM Japan, CPI, and oil prices emerge as the most significant contributors to JII fluctuations. The JII exhibits negative responses to shocks from the BI Rate and the U.S. DJIM. These findings underscore the crucial role of both domestic macroeconomic factors and global Islamic stock market trends in shaping the dynamics of the JII. The implications are twofold. For investors, international portfolio diversification is crucial to mitigate risks. For policymakers, these results emphasize the need for prudent economic policies, particularly concerning interest rates, inflation management, and energy diversification strategies.


Keywords


Jakarta Islamic Index, Macroeconomic, Dow Jones Islamic Market Index, Sharia Stocks, Vector Error Correction Model

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